Peramalan Temperatur Udara Di Kota Surabaya dengan Menggunakan ARIMA dan Artificial Neural Network

Ali Machmudin, Brodjol S. S. Ulama
Submission Date: 2012-07-30 11:16:23
Accepted Date: 2012-09-13 10:33:23

Abstract


Pada dekade terakhir terjadi peningkatan  temperatur terutama di kota besar tidak terkecuali di Surabaya. Dampak yang ditimbulkan akibat kenaikan temperatur udara adalah kekeringan, krisis air, hingga perubahan cuaca. Untuk mengantisipasi perubahan suhu udara diperlukan suatu model yang dapat meramalkan kondisi udara / temperatur. Model yang banyak digunakan adalah model ARIMA untuk pendekatan model linear. Berdasarkan proses identifikasi model ARIIMA yang didapat adalah Model ARIMA (0,1,2). Sedangkan untuk model Pendugaan data temperatur udara Kota Surabaya dengan menggunakan Artificial Neural Network dengan metode backpropagation menghasilkan model optimum FFNN (2,4,1). Berdasarkan kedua model tersebut yang memberikan nilai MAPE terkecil adalah FFNN (2,4,1) yaitu sebesar 0.0714% dibandingkan model ARIMA sebesar 2.305 % .

 

 


Keywords


Temperatur, ARIMA, ANN, Backpropagation.

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