Pemodelan Data Curah Hujan Di Kabupaten Banyuwangi dengan Metode ARIMA dan Radial Basis Function Neural Network

Novelina Purba, Brodjol Sutijo Suprih Ulama
Submission Date: 2016-07-18 15:02:05
Accepted Date: 2016-12-19 15:40:58

Abstract


Curah hujan merupakan salah satu komponen lingkungan pemegang peranan penting dalam budidaya tanaman. Bagi Kabupaten Banyuwangi jumlah curah hujan sangat penting dalam menentukan ke-berhasilannya sebagai salah satu lumbung padi Jawa Timur. Perencanaan waktu tanam tidak lepas dari kondisi curah hujan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA dan RBFNN untuk memodelkan curah hujan di Kabupaten Banyuwangi dengan pendekatan linier dan non linier. Model ARIMA merupakan pendekatan linier pada data curah hujan, sedangkan model RBFNN merupakan pendekatan non linier pada data. Penelitian ini membandingkan kedua model tersebut berdasarkan nilai Mean Square Error (MSE) .Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berasal dari Stasiun Meteorologi Banyuwangi. Model ARIMA menghasilkan nilai MSE sebesar 344,658 dan model RBFNN menghasilkan nilai MSE sebesar 300,185. Berdasarkan perbandingan MSE dari kedua model disimpulkan bahwa model RBFNN lebih baik dari pada ARIMA dalam meramalkan curah hujan di Kabupaten Banyuwangi.

Keywords


ARIMA, RBFNN, Curah Hujan, Banyuwangi

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