Pemodelan Pengangguran Terbuka di Jawa Timur dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Regresi Spline Multivariabel

Ruli Sartika Sari, I Nyoman Budiantara
Submission Date: 2012-08-03 08:50:33
Accepted Date: 2013-01-17 09:40:07

Abstract


Tingkat kebutuhan premium semakin melonjak seiring dengan bertambahnya jumlah kendaraan bermotor pribadi yang memenuhi jalan-jalan perkotaan. Tingginya tingkat permintaan BBM seringkali menyebabkan adanya kelangkaan di beberapa wilayah di Indonesia, salah satunya di wilayah selatan Jawa Timur. Kurangnya stok dan rumitnya rantai pasokan untuk menyalurkan BBM menjadi penyebab utama kelangkaan. Variasi kalender seperti jumlah hari libur dan keberadaan hari besar, khususnya hari raya Idul Fitri merupakan salah satu indikator penentu kebutuhan premium pada setiap bulannya. Hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan metode ARIMAX dengan pengaruh kalender variasi merupakan model terbaik yang terpilih, dengan nilai RMSE

Keywords


GCV; Pengangguran Terbuka; R2; Regresi Spline

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