Penerapan Fuzzy Time Series Dalam Peramalan Nilai KWH Listrik Golongan Tarif Rumah Tangga di Jawa Timur

Ekky Hidma Octia Rahmah, Mohammad Isa Irawan
Submission Date: 2019-02-05 13:56:56
Accepted Date: 2019-05-31 12:37:16

Abstract


Listrik telah menjadi kebutuhan utama manusia untuk menjalankan segala aktifitasnya. Akan tetapi, peningkatan kebutuhan itu tidak sebanding dengan peningkatan penyediannya yang berakibat sering terjadi pemadaman aliran listrik. Kondisi tersebut mendukung dilakukannya pengembangan penyediaan tenaga listrik dengan melakukan peramalan nilai kebutuhan energi listrik dengan menggunakan data pemakaian kWh listrik jenis golongan tarif rumah tangga dengan metode fuzzy time series. Hasilnya adalah metode fuzzy time series baik digunakan pada data pemakaian kWh listrik kelompok rumah tangga golongan tarif reguler, karena rata-rata nilai MAPE yang dihasilkan sebesar 19 % atau dapat dikatan rata-rata ketepatan nilainya sebesar 81 %, terutama untuk data jenis golongan tarif R-3/6.600 VA ke atas dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 4,8 persen atau dapat dikatakan ketepatan nilainya 95,2 %.

Keywords


peramalan; fuzzy time series; kwh listrik; golongan tarif rumah tangga

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