Pemodelan Pengaruh Iklim Terhadap Angka Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Surabaya

Dian Rahayu K, Wiwiek Setya Winahju, Adatul Mukarromah
Submission Date: 2012-07-25 13:49:12
Accepted Date: 2013-01-17 08:47:30

Abstract


Demam Berdarah Dengue adalah penyakit infeksi tular vektor yang ditemukan di daerah tropis-subtropis. Faktor iklim meliputi suhu, kelembaban dan curah hujan diduga berpengaruh terhadap angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue. Penelitian ini tentang pemodelan pengaruh iklim terhadap angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue menggunakan regresi Poisson, regresi Generalized Poisson dan regresi Binomial Negatif. Hasil analisis menunjukkan model terbaik diperoleh menggunakan regresi Binomial Negatif. Faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Genteng adalah angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue 1 bulan sebelumnya, curah hujan, curah hujan 1 bulan sebelumnya dan kelembaban udara 2 bulan sebelumnya. Gubeng meliputi angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue 1 bulan sebelumnya, suhu udara, curah hujan, curah hujan 1 bulan sebelumnya dan kelembaban 2 bulan sebelumnya. Selanjutnya, Tegalsari meliputi angka kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue 1 bulan sebelumnya, curah hujan dan kelembaban udara 2 bulan sebelumnya.


Keywords


Demam Berdarah Dengue; faktor iklim; overdispersi; regresi Poisson

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