Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda Motor Menurut Tipe dengan Pendekatan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) di Kabupaten Banyuwangi

Maries Lailatul Izza, Destri Susilaningrum, Suhartono Suhartono
Submission Date: 2014-08-24 16:31:30
Accepted Date: 2014-09-14 11:50:42

Abstract


Sampai saat ini transportasi masal di Indonesia masih belum terkelola dengan baik, hal ini menyebabkan masyarakat lebih banyak memilih untuk menggunakan kendaraan pribadi, salah satunya adalah sepeda motor. Penjualan sepeda motor di kabupaten Banyuwangi meningkat pada bulan-bulan tertentu, hal ini diduga adanya pengaruh dari variasi kalender. Pada penelitian ini di-lakukan pemodelan penjualan sepeda motor menggunakan metode ARIMAX dengan pendekatan model deterministic dan stochastic yang dibandingkan menggunakan kriteria nilai SMAPE. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik untuk penjualan ketiga tipe sepeda motor adalah menggunakan model deterministic.

Keywords


ARIMAX;Deterministic;SMAPE;Stochastic

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