Peramalan Volume Penjualan Total Sepeda Motor di Kabupaten Bojonegoro dan Lamongan dengan Pendekatan Model ARIMAX dan VARX

Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah, Destri Susilaningrum, Suhartono Suhartono
Submission Date: 2014-08-24 18:38:11
Accepted Date: 2014-09-14 11:50:42

Abstract


Sepeda motor merupakan salah satu alat transportasi yang banyak diminati oleh masyarakat Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui karakteristik penjualan total sepeda motor jenis Automatic, Cub, dan Sport di Kabupaten Bojonegoro dan Lamongan, serta mendapatkan model ramalannya untuk tahun 2014. Model yang digunakan adalah model ARIMAX dan VARX. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara umum penjualan total sepeda motor dipengaruhi oleh Hari Raya Idul Fitri dan bulan tahun ajaran baru, serta terdapat siklus musiman. Selain itu, terdapat keterkaitan penjualan sepeda motor antar jenis di kabupaten yang sama, dan juga antar jenis di kabupaten yang berbeda. Hasil ramalan tahun 2014 menunjukkan bahwa masih terdapat kenaikan pada sepeda motor jenis Automatic dan Sport. Sebaliknya, terjadi penurunan pada jenis Cub.

Keywords


Penjualan;Sepeda motor;ARIMAX;VARX

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