Estimasi Value at Risk pada Portofolio Nilai Tukar Mata Uang dengan Pendekatan Copula

Abstract

Interaksi kurs, saham, dan suku bunga memiliki hu-bungan sangat besar dengan pasar uang. Resiko investasi tidak hanya pada portofolio saham saja, namun pada portofolio kurs. Stabilitas terhadap nilai tukar mata uang suatu negara merupakan hal yang penting dan berdampak pada tingkat perekonomian negara. Penelitian ini mengestimasi Value at Risk (VaR) portofolio kurs menggunakan Copula- Generalized Auto-regresive ConditionalHeteroskedaritic (GARCH) serta simulasi Monte Carlo, hal ini  bertujuan agar investasi yang dilakukan memberikan resiko yang minimal dan return yang didapatkan optimal. Sebagai studi kasus digunakan nilai tukar mata uang the euro (EURO), the United States dollar (USD), the pound sterling (GBP), dan the Malaysian ringgit(MYR). Apabila me-lakukan investasi dalam keempat mata uang secara merata maka akan didapatkan VaRatau kerugian maksimum sebesar 4,507% dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% dan tingkat ke-percayaan 99%, kerugian maksimum yang ditanggung investor sebesar 6,501%.

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