Analisis Curah Hujan Ekstrim Non-Stasioner dengan Pendekatan Block Maxima di Surabaya dan Mojokerto
Submission Date: 2019-07-23 10:12:44
Accepted Date: 2020-02-03 00:00:00
Abstract
Extreme Value Theory (EVT) merupakan salah satu metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis nilai ekstrim. Salah satu pendekatan metode EVT adalah Block Maxima yang mengidentifikasi nilai ekstrim berdasarkan nilai maksimum dari data yang dikelompokkan berdasarkan periode tertentu. Return level merupakan salah satu bagian yang penting dalam interpretasi mode EVT. Return level yang memuat informasi curah hujan maksimum dapat digunakan untuk mempertimbangkan desain dan dimensi kapasitas saluran drainase yang dibuat sebagai upaya pencegahan banjir. Sebelum menentukan nilai return level, estimasi parameter harus diketahui terlebih dahulu. Asumsi yang dibutuhkan pada estimasi parameter adalah bahwa parameter model stasioner. Namun kenyataannya, seringkali ditemukan kondisi non-stasioner. Dengan demikian, pada penelitian ini dilakukan analisis curah hujan ekstrim non-stasioner pada dua pos pengamatan di Surabaya dan lima pos pengamatan di Mojokerto. Selain itu, analisis dengan metode stasioner juga dilakukan untuk membandingkan metode tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa data yang memiliki pola tren menghasilkan nilai RMSE return level non-stasioner yang lebih kecil dibandingkan pada metode stasioner.
Keywords
Block Maxima; Curah Hujan Ekstrim; Mojokerto; Non-Stasioner; Surabaya
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