Perbandingan Estimasi Return Level Declustering dan Non Declustering pada Data Curah Hujan Ekstrem Di Surabaya dan Mojokerto
Submission Date: 2019-07-23 17:25:14
Accepted Date: 2020-01-30 00:00:00
Abstract
Surabaya merupakan wilayah perkotaan yang rentan mengalami curah hujan tinggi sehingga sering terjadi banjir. Mojokerto yang dari tahun ke tahun mengalami peralihan fungsi lahan juga sering terjadi banjir. Untuk meminimalisir kerugian banjir, dibutuhkan pengetahuan terkait kejadian ekstrem mengguna-kan Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Terdapat dua pendekatan dalam EVT, yaitu Block Maxima (BM) dan Peaks Over Threshold (POT). POT merupakan salah satu metode untuk mengidentifikasi nilai ekstrem dengan menggunakan nilai acuan yang disebut dengan threshold. Salah satu syarat EVT yaitu data harus independen. Namun pada kenyataannya data ekstrem seringkali bersifat dependen sehingga perlu dilakukan penanganan adanya dependensi data dengan menggunakan Declustering. Yang menarik pada EVT yaitu adanya return level. Return level merupakan nilai maksimum yang diharapkan akan terlampaui satu kali dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Pada penelitian ini akan dilakukan perbandingan estimasi return level Declustering dan POT (Non Declustering) pada data curah hujan ekstrem. Jumlah pos pengamatan yang digunakan sebanyak dua pos pengamatan di Surabaya dan lima pos pengamatan Mojokerto. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa di Surabaya metode yang lebih baik yaitu Declustering, sedangkan di Mojokerto metode yang lebih baik yaitu Non Declustering.
Keywords
Declustering; Mojokerto; Peaks Over Threshold; Return Level; Surabaya
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